Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-03-29 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes (OT)

Win Probability

TBL: 65.5%

CAR: 34.5%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.27

CAR: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 52%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

CAR

A. Raanta

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	19	16	3	84.2%	1.98	0	-1.02
CAR	A. Raanta	32	28	4	87.5%	3.81	0	-0.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • TBL at home vs CAR: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	TBL 2 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-02-26	CAR 5 - 4 TBL	CAR	CAR
2025-12-20	TBL 6 - 4 CAR	TBL	TBL
2025-03-11	CAR 4 - 1 TBL	CAR	CAR
2025-01-07	TBL 3 - 2 CAR	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	TBL	11	0.93
1	CAR	7	0.31
2	TBL	14	1.26
2	CAR	16	1.16
3	TBL	17	1.45
3	CAR	7	0.51
4	TBL	1	0.16
4	CAR	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8