Colorado Avalanche at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2022-03-29 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 1 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 64.0%

COL: 36.0%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.45

COL: 2.59

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 49%

CGY

J. Markstrom

COL

D. Kuemper

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	30	28	2	93.3%	2.14	0	0.14
COL	D. Kuemper	45	44	1	97.8%	2.87	0	1.87

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • CGY at home vs COL: 1-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	CGY 1 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-09	COL 3 - 1 CGY	COL	COL
2026-03-30	COL 9 - 2 CGY	COL	COL
2025-03-31	COL 2 - 3 CGY	CGY	COL
2025-03-14	CGY 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	CGY	15	0.81
1	COL	10	0.43
2	CGY	21	0.99
2	COL	9	0.54
3	CGY	25	1.08
3	COL	18	1.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 1 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.4 - 2.6