Winnipeg Jets at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-03-31 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 7 - 3 Winnipeg Jets

Win Probability

TOR: 74.5%

WPG: 25.5%

Expected Goals

TOR: 4.06

WPG: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 58%

TOR

E. Kallgren

WPG

Eric Comrie - 6-9-1 | 0.880 SV% | 3.49 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	E. Kallgren	23	20	3	87.0%	2.59	2	-0.41
WPG	Eric Comrie	38	31	7	81.6%	5.68	5	-1.32

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TOR at home vs WPG: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	WPG 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	WPG
2026-01-01	TOR 6 - 5 WPG	TOR	TOR
2024-12-23	TOR 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	TOR
2024-10-28	WPG 4 - 6 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-01-27	WPG 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	16	1	1.28
1	WPG	10	2	1.28
2	TOR	17	2	1.85
2	WPG	9	0	0.55
3	TOR	17	2	2.54
3	WPG	15	0	0.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 74.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 7 - 3 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 4.1 - 2.9