Pittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2022-04-02 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

COL: 52.9%

PIT: 47.1%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.34

PIT: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 46%

COL

D. Kuemper

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	D. Kuemper	40	38	2	95.0%	2.59	0	0.59
PIT	Tristan Jarry	38	35	3	92.1%	2.84	1	-0.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • COL at home vs PIT: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	PIT 2 - 6 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-16	COL 2 - 7 PIT	PIT	COL
2025-03-04	COL 4 - 1 PIT	COL	COL
2024-12-10	PIT 2 - 6 COL	COL	COL
2024-03-24	COL 5 - 4 PIT	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	15	0	0.42
1	PIT	22	0	0.94
2	COL	15	0	0.77
2	PIT	18	0	1.08
3	COL	17	1	1.66
3	PIT	10	0	0.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1