Florida Panthers at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2022-04-03 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 5 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 51.5%

FLA: 48.5%

Expected Goals

BUF: 2.95

FLA: 3.71

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 50%

BUF

D. Tokarski

FLA

Spencer Knight - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	D. Tokarski	40	35	5	87.5%	3.40	2	-1.60
FLA	Spencer Knight	29	26	3	89.7%	3.19	2	0.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • BUF at home vs FLA: 2-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-27	FLA 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	FLA
2026-02-02	FLA 3 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-01-12	BUF 3 - 4 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-10-18	BUF 3 - 0 FLA	BUF	FLA
2025-04-12	FLA 3 - 2 BUF	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	13	1	0.90
1	FLA	12	0	0.72
2	BUF	10	0	0.30
2	FLA	28	2	2.03
3	BUF	17	1	1.98
3	FLA	11	0	0.65

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 5 Florida Panthers

Expected: 2.9 - 3.7