Minnesota Wild at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2022-04-03 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 1 - 5 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 54.8%

MIN: 45.2%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.13

MIN: 2.79

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 41%

WSH

V. Vanecek

MIN

C. Talbot

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	V. Vanecek	19	14	5	73.7%	2.56	1	-2.44
MIN	C. Talbot	26	25	1	96.2%	2.15	2	1.15

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • WSH at home vs MIN: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-16	MIN 5 - 0 WSH	MIN	WSH
2025-10-17	WSH 5 - 1 MIN	WSH	WSH
2025-03-27	MIN 4 - 2 WSH	MIN	MIN
2025-01-02	WSH 3 - 4 MIN	MIN	WSH
2024-01-23	MIN 5 - 3 WSH	MIN	MIN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	12	1	0.81
1	MIN	10	0	0.55
2	WSH	11	0	0.50
2	MIN	9	0	0.60
3	WSH	13	1	0.84
3	MIN	11	1	1.42

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 1 - 5 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.1 - 2.8