Carolina Hurricanes at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2022-04-05 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 41.5%

CAR: 58.5%

Expected Goals

BUF: 2.77

CAR: 3.61

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

BUF

C. Anderson

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	C. Anderson	34	32	2	94.1%	3.00	1	1.00
CAR	Frederik Andersen	22	18	4	81.8%	2.86	2	-1.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BUF at home vs CAR: 6-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-19	CAR 2 - 1 BUF	CAR	CAR
2025-11-23	BUF 4 - 1 CAR	BUF	CAR
2025-11-08	CAR 6 - 3 BUF	CAR	CAR
2025-04-08	BUF 3 - 0 CAR	BUF	CAR
2025-02-27	CAR 5 - 2 BUF	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	9	1	0.67
1	CAR	19	1	1.32
2	BUF	15	0	1.09
2	CAR	15	0	0.89
3	BUF	8	1	1.10
3	CAR	16	0	0.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 2.8 - 3.6