Ottawa Senators at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2022-04-05 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 6 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 52.3%

OTT: 47.7%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.12

OTT: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 47%

MTL

J. Allen

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	J. Allen	32	26	6	81.2%	3.79	4	-2.21
OTT	Anton Forsberg	30	27	3	90.0%	2.59	1	-0.41

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • MTL at home vs OTT: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-11	OTT 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	OTT
2026-01-17	OTT 5 - 6 MTL	MTL	OTT
2025-12-02	MTL 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-01	MTL 4 - 3 OTT	MTL	MTL
2025-04-11	OTT 5 - 2 MTL	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	15	1	1.21
1	OTT	17	0	1.14
2	MTL	13	0	0.83
2	OTT	12	1	1.49
3	MTL	12	0	0.55
3	OTT	12	3	1.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 6 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.1 - 2.9