New Jersey Devils at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2022-02-07 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 4 - 1 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 43.1%

NJD: 56.9%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.11

NJD: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 49%

OTT

M. Murray

NJD

Nico Daws - 3-1-0 | 0.939 SV% | 1.60 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	M. Murray	33	32	1	97.0%	3.81	1	2.81
NJD	Nico Daws	24	20	4	83.3%	2.41	1	-1.59

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • OTT at home vs NJD: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	NJD 4 - 3 OTT	NJD	NJD
2026-01-31	OTT 4 - 1 NJD	OTT	OTT
2025-12-09	OTT 3 - 4 NJD	NJD	OTT
2025-03-22	NJD 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-01-19	NJD 1 - 2 OTT	OTT	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	11	0	0.74
1	NJD	13	0	0.94
2	OTT	8	0	0.58
2	NJD	19	1	1.81
3	OTT	16	1	1.09
3	NJD	15	0	1.05

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 4 - 1 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2