Philadelphia Flyers at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2022-04-07 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 1 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

CBJ: 54.2%

PHI: 45.8%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 3.31

PHI: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 47%

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

PHI

M. Jones

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	31	27	4	87.1%	3.78	2	-0.22
PHI	M. Jones	27	26	1	96.3%	1.63	0	0.63

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CBJ at home vs PHI: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	PHI 2 - 3 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ
2026-03-14	PHI 1 - 2 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ
2026-01-28	CBJ 5 - 3 PHI	CBJ	PHI
2025-04-15	PHI 0 - 3 CBJ	CBJ	PHI
2025-01-14	CBJ 3 - 2 PHI	CBJ	CBJ

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	12	0	0.54
1	PHI	17	0	0.65
2	CBJ	13	0	0.74
2	PHI	16	0	1.22
3	CBJ	10	0	0.36
3	PHI	14	2	1.91

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Columbus Blue Jackets 1 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1