Ottawa Senators at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2022-04-09 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 5 - 1 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

NYR: 55.2%

OTT: 44.8%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.34

OTT: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	22	21	1	95.5%	2.00	1	1.00
OTT	Anton Forsberg	33	28	5	84.8%	3.58	2	-1.42

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NYR at home vs OTT: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-23	NYR 1 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT
2026-01-14	NYR 4 - 8 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-04	OTT 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	OTT
2025-03-08	OTT 4 - 3 NYR	OTT	OTT
2025-01-21	NYR 5 - 0 OTT	NYR	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	19	1	1.37
1	OTT	3	0	0.30
2	NYR	18	1	1.51
2	OTT	9	0	0.52
3	NYR	12	0	0.69
3	OTT	19	1	1.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 5 - 1 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9