Winnipeg Jets at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2022-04-10 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 3 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

Win Probability

OTT: 47.6%

WPG: 52.4%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.25

WPG: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

OTT

Mads Sogaard - 1-1-0 | 0.800 SV% | 5.24 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Mads Sogaard	25	21	4	84.0%	2.51	1	-1.49
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	34	31	3	91.2%	4.16	5	1.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 90% • OTT at home vs WPG: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-03	OTT 4 - 2 WPG	OTT	OTT
2025-12-15	WPG 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-02-26	OTT 1 - 4 WPG	WPG	WPG
2024-12-28	WPG 4 - 2 OTT	WPG	WPG
2024-03-30	WPG 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	13	2	1.22
1	WPG	7	0	0.30
2	OTT	11	0	0.83
2	WPG	20	1	1.35
3	OTT	20	3	2.11
3	WPG	10	0	0.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 3 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1