Boston Bruins at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2022-04-10 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 4 - 2 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 42.1%

BOS: 57.9%

Expected Goals

WSH: 2.82

BOS: 3.37

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 51%

WSH

V. Vanecek

BOS

L. Ullmark

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	V. Vanecek	30	28	2	93.3%	3.16	0	1.16
BOS	L. Ullmark	33	29	4	87.9%	4.06	2	0.06

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • WSH at home vs BOS: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	WSH 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	WSH
2026-03-07	BOS 3 - 1 WSH	BOS	BOS
2025-10-08	WSH 1 - 3 BOS	BOS	WSH
2025-04-01	BOS 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	BOS
2024-12-31	WSH 3 - 1 BOS	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	9	0	0.51
1	BOS	16	0	1.31
2	WSH	17	0	0.76
2	BOS	20	0	1.18
3	WSH	21	2	2.79
3	BOS	10	0	0.67

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 4 - 2 Boston Bruins

Expected: 2.8 - 3.4