Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-04-12 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (70% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 69.6%

BUF: 30.4%

Expected Goals

TOR: 4.25

BUF: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 51%

TOR

E. Kallgren

BUF

C. Anderson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	E. Kallgren	28	23	5	82.1%	3.68	4	-1.32
BUF	C. Anderson	26	24	2	92.3%	2.93	2	0.93

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • TOR at home vs BUF: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	BUF 3 - 2 TOR	BUF	BUF
2026-01-27	TOR 4 - 7 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-25	TOR 4 - 3 BUF	TOR	TOR
2025-10-24	BUF 5 - 3 TOR	BUF	TOR
2025-04-15	BUF 0 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	9	0	0.73
1	BUF	11	0	0.73
2	TOR	11	1	0.94
2	BUF	14	0	1.14
3	TOR	12	1	1.26
3	BUF	15	4	1.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 69.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 7.5

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 4.3 - 3.2