Vegas Golden Knights at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2022-04-12 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 5 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

Win Probability

VAN: 42.6%

VGK: 57.4%

Expected Goals

VAN: 3.05

VGK: 3.45

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

VGK

R. Lehner

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Thatcher Demko	45	41	4	91.1%	2.89	0	-1.11
VGK	R. Lehner	27	22	5	81.5%	3.49	1	-1.51

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • VAN at home vs VGK: 2-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	VAN 1 - 2 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-30	VGK 4 - 2 VAN	VGK	VGK
2026-02-04	VGK 5 - 2 VAN	VGK	VGK
2025-04-16	VAN 1 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-06	VAN 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	8	0	0.48
1	VGK	18	0	1.10
2	VAN	20	1	2.09
2	VGK	18	0	0.84
3	VAN	5	0	0.57
3	VGK	21	0	0.96
4	VAN	4	0	0.36
4	VGK	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 5 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.0 - 3.5