Anaheim Ducks at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-04-14 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Anaheim Ducks (OT)

Win Probability

TBL: 59.1%

ANA: 40.9%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.33

ANA: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

ANA

A. Stolarz

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	26	23	3	88.5%	2.89	0	-0.11
ANA	A. Stolarz	31	27	4	87.1%	3.08	0	-0.92

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TBL at home vs ANA: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-31	ANA 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-25	TBL 4 - 3 ANA	TBL	TBL
2025-01-16	TBL 4 - 3 ANA	TBL	TBL
2025-01-05	ANA 4 - 1 TBL	ANA	TBL
2024-03-24	ANA 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	ANA

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	TBL	16	1.18
1	ANA	9	0.54
2	TBL	12	0.93
2	ANA	17	1.13
3	TBL	14	0.69
3	ANA	11	0.83
4	TBL	3	0.28
4	ANA	3	0.40

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Anaheim Ducks

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9