New York Islanders at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2022-04-14 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 6 - 3 New York Islanders

Win Probability

PIT: 71.1%

NYI: 28.9%

Expected Goals

PIT: 4.27

NYI: 2.65

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 52%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	39	36	3	92.3%	2.89	2	-0.11
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	28	22	6	78.6%	4.12	3	-1.88

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • PIT at home vs NYI: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-30	NYI 3 - 8 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-02-03	NYI 5 - 4 PIT	NYI	PIT
2025-10-09	PIT 4 - 3 NYI	PIT	PIT
2025-03-18	PIT 2 - 4 NYI	NYI	PIT
2024-12-29	PIT 3 - 2 NYI	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	16	0	0.86
1	NYI	14	1	0.97
2	PIT	7	0	0.70
2	NYI	20	0	0.84
3	PIT	14	3	2.56
3	NYI	15	1	1.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 71.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 6 - 3 New York Islanders

Expected: 4.3 - 2.6