Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2022-04-16 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 0 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 47.4%

VGK: 52.6%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.03

VGK: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 73%

Over 6.5: 52%

EDM

M. Smith

VGK

L. Thompson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	M. Smith	39	39	0	100.0%	2.57	0	2.57
VGK	L. Thompson	36	32	4	88.9%	3.89	3	-0.11

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • EDM at home vs VGK: 8-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	EDM 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-26	VGK 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2026-03-08	VGK 2 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2025-12-21	EDM 4 - 3 VGK	EDM	EDM
2025-05-14	VGK 0 - 1 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	14	0	1.12
1	VGK	17	0	0.72
2	EDM	23	2	1.62
2	VGK	14	0	0.55
3	EDM	11	1	1.15
3	VGK	20	0	1.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 0 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1