Washington Capitals at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2022-04-16 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 8 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

MTL: 43.0%

WSH: 57.0%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.01

WSH: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

WSH

V. Vanecek

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	41	33	8	80.5%	4.81	2	-3.19
WSH	V. Vanecek	32	28	4	87.5%	2.84	0	-1.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • MTL at home vs WSH: 4-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	MTL 6 - 2 WSH	MTL	MTL
2026-01-13	WSH 3 - 2 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-11-20	MTL 4 - 8 WSH	WSH	MTL
2025-04-30	WSH 4 - 1 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-04-27	MTL 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	19	0	0.99
1	WSH	12	1	0.99
2	MTL	15	0	1.19
2	WSH	27	1	2.23
3	MTL	9	0	0.66
3	WSH	21	0	1.60

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 8 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2