Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-04-16 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 7 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

Win Probability

TBL: 67.5%

WPG: 32.5%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.37

WPG: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

TBL

B. Elliott

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	B. Elliott	18	14	4	77.8%	1.59	0	-2.41
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	37	30	7	81.1%	3.40	1	-3.60

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • TBL at home vs WPG: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	WPG 4 - 1 TBL	WPG	TBL
2026-01-29	TBL 4 - 1 WPG	TBL	TBL
2024-11-14	TBL 4 - 1 WPG	TBL	TBL
2024-11-03	WPG 7 - 4 TBL	WPG	WPG
2024-01-02	WPG 4 - 2 TBL	WPG	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	13	0	0.73
1	WPG	9	0	0.52
2	TBL	11	0	1.34
2	WPG	11	0	0.83
3	TBL	20	1	1.34
3	WPG	5	0	0.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 7 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0