Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2022-01-22 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 1 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

NYI: 46.9%

TOR: 53.1%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.51

TOR: 3.46

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 58%

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

TOR

P. Mrazek

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	23	20	3	87.0%	2.26	2	-0.74
TOR	P. Mrazek	28	27	1	96.4%	2.41	0	1.41

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NYI at home vs TOR: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	NYI 5 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI
2026-03-17	TOR 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	NYI
2026-01-03	NYI 4 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI
2025-01-02	NYI 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-12-31	TOR 3 - 1 NYI	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	11	0	0.70
1	TOR	9	1	0.84
2	NYI	9	0	0.68
2	TOR	14	1	1.06
3	NYI	18	0	1.02
3	TOR	5	0	0.36

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 1 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.5 - 3.5