Washington Capitals at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2022-04-18 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 3 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 54.0%

WSH: 46.0%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.51

WSH: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 49%

COL

D. Kuemper

WSH

I. Samsonov

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	D. Kuemper	27	24	3	88.9%	2.16	0	-0.84
WSH	I. Samsonov	26	24	2	92.3%	2.57	1	0.57

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • COL at home vs WSH: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	WSH 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-01-19	COL 5 - 2 WSH	COL	COL
2024-11-21	WSH 1 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2024-11-15	COL 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	COL
2024-02-13	WSH 3 - 6 COL	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	14	0	1.34
1	WSH	12	0	0.81
2	COL	8	0	0.65
2	WSH	11	0	0.64
3	COL	13	1	0.58
3	WSH	14	0	0.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 3 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.5 - 3.1