Dallas Stars at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2022-04-20 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 5 - 2 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 49.7%

DAL: 50.3%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.56

DAL: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

EDM

M. Smith

DAL

S. Wedgewood

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	M. Smith	36	34	2	94.4%	2.60	1	0.60
DAL	S. Wedgewood	50	45	5	90.0%	4.68	4	-0.32

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • EDM at home vs DAL: 7-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	DAL 7 - 2 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-11-25	EDM 3 - 8 DAL	DAL	EDM
2025-11-04	DAL 4 - 3 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-05-29	DAL 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-05-27	EDM 4 - 1 DAL	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	24	1	1.35
1	DAL	14	0	0.68
2	EDM	24	2	2.08
2	DAL	12	1	1.09
3	EDM	16	1	1.25
3	DAL	16	0	0.83

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 5 - 2 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.6 - 3.1