Washington Capitals at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2022-04-20 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 3 Washington Capitals (OT)

Win Probability

VGK: 59.2%

WSH: 40.8%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.29

WSH: 2.45

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 51%

VGK

R. Lehner

WSH

I. Samsonov

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	R. Lehner	28	25	3	89.3%	2.01	1	-0.99
WSH	I. Samsonov	30	26	4	86.7%	1.90	0	-2.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VGK at home vs WSH: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	VGK 4 - 5 WSH	WSH	VGK
2026-02-27	WSH 3 - 2 VGK	WSH	VGK
2024-11-17	VGK 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-10-15	WSH 4 - 2 VGK	WSH	VGK
2023-12-02	VGK 4 - 1 WSH	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	12	0	0.52
1	WSH	16	1	0.91
2	VGK	13	0	0.57
2	WSH	12	0	0.59
3	VGK	16	0	0.69
3	WSH	9	0	0.51
4	VGK	1	0	0.12
4	WSH	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 3 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.3 - 2.4