Philadelphia Flyers at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2022-04-21 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 6 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 54.0%

PHI: 46.0%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.33

PHI: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 46%

MTL

C. Price

PHI

M. Jones

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	C. Price	34	28	6	82.4%	2.53	1	-3.47
PHI	M. Jones	34	31	3	91.2%	3.30	1	0.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • MTL at home vs PHI: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	PHI 4 - 2 MTL	PHI	PHI
2025-12-16	MTL 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	MTL
2025-11-04	MTL 4 - 5 PHI	PHI	MTL
2025-04-05	MTL 3 - 2 PHI	MTL	PHI
2025-03-27	PHI 6 - 4 MTL	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	13	1	1.37
1	PHI	9	1	0.62
2	MTL	20	0	1.27
2	PHI	21	0	1.36
3	MTL	12	0	0.66
3	PHI	10	0	0.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 6 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0