Boston Bruins at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2022-04-21 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 0 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 49.0%

BOS: 51.0%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.13

BOS: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

PIT

C. DeSmith

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	C. DeSmith	52	52	0	100.0%	2.81	0	2.81
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	32	28	4	87.5%	3.42	4	-0.58

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • PIT at home vs BOS: 2-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-08	PIT 5 - 4 BOS	PIT	PIT
2026-03-03	BOS 2 - 1 PIT	BOS	PIT
2026-01-11	BOS 1 - 0 PIT	BOS	BOS
2025-04-13	PIT 1 - 4 BOS	BOS	PIT
2025-03-01	PIT 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	16	3	1.87
1	BOS	13	0	0.33
2	PIT	21	0	0.77
2	BOS	21	0	0.66
3	PIT	10	1	0.78
3	BOS	30	0	1.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 0 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2