Colorado Avalanche at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2022-04-22 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 6 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

EDM: 58.6%

COL: 41.4%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.49

COL: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

EDM

M. Smith

COL

D. Kuemper

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	M. Smith	37	34	3	91.9%	4.23	2	1.23
COL	D. Kuemper	27	21	6	77.8%	3.10	1	-2.90

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • EDM at home vs COL: 2-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	EDM 1 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-10	COL 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	COL
2025-11-08	EDM 1 - 9 COL	COL	COL
2025-02-07	EDM 4 - 5 COL	COL	EDM
2025-01-16	COL 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	11	0	0.90
1	COL	10	0	0.92
2	EDM	13	0	1.02
2	COL	18	1	1.53
3	EDM	11	1	1.17
3	COL	22	1	1.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 6 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.5 - 2.9