New York Islanders at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2022-04-23 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 5 - 3 New York Islanders
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 59.6%
NYI: 40.4%
Expected Goals
BUF: 3.39
NYI: 2.92
Total Goals
Median: 6.6
Over 5.5: 65%
Over 6.5: 51%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
D. Tokarski
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA
| Stat | BUF | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | 2.55 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | D. Tokarski | 22 | 19 | 3 | 86.4% | 1.72 | 0 | -1.28 |
| NYI | Ilya Sorokin | 35 | 30 | 5 | 85.7% | 3.20 | 0 | -1.80 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BUF at home vs NYI: 7-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | BUF 4 - 3 NYI | BUF | BUF |
| 2026-01-24 | NYI 0 - 5 BUF | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-12-20 | BUF 3 - 2 NYI | BUF | BUF |
| 2024-12-23 | NYI 1 - 7 BUF | BUF | NYI |
| 2024-11-30 | NYI 3 - 0 BUF | NYI | NYI |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 18 | 0 | 1.49 |
| 1 | NYI | 9 | 0 | 0.44 |
| 2 | BUF | 14 | 0 | 0.70 |
| 2 | NYI | 6 | 0 | 0.29 |
| 3 | BUF | 16 | 0 | 1.00 |
| 3 | NYI | 11 | 0 | 0.99 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 59.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 5 - 3 New York Islanders
Expected: 3.4 - 2.9
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