Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2022-04-23 • FLA Live Arena

Florida Panthers 3 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs (OT)

Win Probability

FLA: 62.1%

TOR: 37.9%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.49

TOR: 2.56

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 49%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

TOR

J. Campbell

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	36	34	2	94.4%	3.94	2	1.94
TOR	J. Campbell	35	32	3	91.4%	3.13	1	0.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 74% • FLA at home vs TOR: 10-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	TOR 2 - 6 FLA	FLA	TOR
2026-02-26	FLA 5 - 1 TOR	FLA	FLA
2026-01-06	TOR 4 - 1 FLA	TOR	TOR
2025-12-02	FLA 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	FLA
2025-05-18	TOR 1 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	11	0	0.80
1	TOR	16	0	1.37
2	FLA	17	1	1.34
2	TOR	12	1	0.95
3	FLA	11	0	0.78
3	TOR	20	1	1.23
4	FLA	2	0	0.21
4	TOR	2	0	0.39

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 3 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.5 - 2.6