Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2022-04-24 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

PHI: 53.1%

PIT: 46.9%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.08

PIT: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 53%

PHI

M. Jones

PIT

L. Domingue

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	M. Jones	38	37	1	97.4%	3.24	1	2.24
PIT	L. Domingue	43	39	4	90.7%	2.77	1	-1.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • PHI at home vs PIT: 7-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-29	PHI 1 - 0 PIT	PHI	PIT
2026-04-27	PIT 3 - 2 PHI	PIT	PIT
2026-04-25	PHI 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	PHI
2026-04-22	PHI 5 - 2 PIT	PHI	PIT
2026-04-20	PIT 0 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	19	0	0.74
1	PIT	17	0	0.69
2	PHI	11	0	0.61
2	PIT	20	1	1.80
3	PHI	19	1	1.42
3	PIT	15	0	0.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0