Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2022-04-24 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 64.0%

TOR: 36.0%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.28

TOR: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

WSH

V. Vanecek

TOR

E. Kallgren

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	V. Vanecek	35	30	5	85.7%	4.26	3	-0.74
TOR	E. Kallgren	42	38	4	90.5%	3.94	1	-0.06

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • WSH at home vs TOR: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-08	TOR 0 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-12-18	WSH 4 - 0 TOR	WSH	WSH
2025-11-28	WSH 4 - 2 TOR	WSH	WSH
2024-12-28	TOR 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-12-06	TOR 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	14	0	0.57
1	TOR	11	0	0.54
2	WSH	16	0	0.90
2	TOR	12	0	0.74
3	WSH	15	0	0.85
3	TOR	15	1	0.95
4	WSH	6	0	0.46
4	TOR	2	0	0.29
5	WSH	7	1	1.16
5	TOR	7	2	1.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2