San Jose Sharks at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2022-04-24 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 5 San Jose Sharks (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (77% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 76.7%

SJS: 23.3%

Expected Goals

VGK: 4.05

SJS: 2.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

VGK

L. Thompson

SJS

J. Reimer

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	L. Thompson	32	27	5	84.4%	2.95	1	-2.05
SJS	J. Reimer	49	45	4	91.8%	4.89	3	0.89

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 72% • VGK at home vs SJS: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-11	SJS 2 - 7 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-12-23	VGK 7 - 2 SJS	VGK	VGK
2025-11-29	VGK 4 - 3 SJS	VGK	VGK
2025-10-09	SJS 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-07	SJS 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	20	0	0.93
1	SJS	13	0	0.44
2	VGK	17	0	0.92
2	SJS	13	0	0.71
3	VGK	14	3	1.95
3	SJS	19	0	0.72
4	VGK	7	0	0.88
4	SJS	1	0	0.02
5	VGK	3	0	0.20
5	SJS	3	1	1.05

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 76.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 5 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 4.0 - 2.1