Edmonton Oilers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2022-04-26 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 5 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 53.8%

EDM: 46.2%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.03

EDM: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 51%

PIT

C. DeSmith

EDM

M. Smith

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	C. DeSmith	42	37	5	88.1%	4.82	4	-0.18
EDM	M. Smith	34	33	1	97.1%	2.56	1	1.56

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • PIT at home vs EDM: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-22	EDM 2 - 6 PIT	PIT	EDM
2025-12-16	PIT 4 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-01-09	PIT 5 - 3 EDM	PIT	EDM
2024-10-25	EDM 4 - 0 PIT	EDM	EDM
2024-03-10	PIT 0 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	10	0	0.70
1	EDM	18	2	1.90
2	PIT	20	1	1.29
2	EDM	17	0	1.01
3	PIT	11	0	0.57
3	EDM	17	2	1.92

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 5 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2