New York Islanders at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2022-04-26 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 1 - 4 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 58.6%

NYI: 41.4%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.91

NYI: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 48%

WSH

I. Samsonov

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	I. Samsonov	26	22	4	84.6%	2.60	2	-1.40
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	33	32	1	97.0%	2.30	0	1.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • WSH at home vs NYI: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-02	WSH 4 - 1 NYI	WSH	WSH
2025-11-30	NYI 1 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-10-31	WSH 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	WSH
2025-10-11	NYI 2 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-04-15	NYI 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	14	0	0.54
1	NYI	18	1	1.06
2	WSH	10	0	0.55
2	NYI	10	0	0.52
3	WSH	24	0	1.21
3	NYI	10	1	1.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 1 - 4 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.9 - 2.8