Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2022-04-26 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 47.5%

VGK: 52.5%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.00

VGK: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 51%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

VGK

L. Thompson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	41	39	2	95.1%	3.39	3	1.39
VGK	L. Thompson	37	34	3	91.9%	4.08	2	1.08

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 46% • DAL at home vs VGK: 7-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	DAL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-10	DAL 2 - 1 VGK	DAL	VGK
2026-01-29	VGK 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-28	VGK 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-24	DAL 4 - 3 VGK	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	9	0	0.62
1	VGK	14	1	0.74
2	DAL	14	1	1.01
2	VGK	14	2	1.33
3	DAL	14	0	0.91
3	VGK	15	0	0.73
4	DAL	2	0	0.28
4	VGK	3	0	0.16
5	DAL	7	1	1.26
5	VGK	7	0	0.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0