Arizona Coyotes at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2022-04-27 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 4 Arizona Coyotes (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (66% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 66.1%

ARI: 33.9%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.55

ARI: 2.71

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 77%

Over 6.5: 57%

DAL

S. Wedgewood

ARI

H. Sateri

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	S. Wedgewood	37	33	4	89.2%	3.74	2	-0.26
ARI	H. Sateri	29	26	3	89.7%	4.49	1	1.49

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • DAL at home vs ARI: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-03-24	ARI 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-03-20	DAL 5 - 2 ARI	DAL	DAL
2023-11-14	DAL 4 - 3 ARI	DAL	DAL
2023-03-31	ARI 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	ARI
2023-03-01	DAL 4 - 2 ARI	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	13	0	0.96
1	ARI	17	0	1.08
2	DAL	33	1	3.13
2	ARI	12	1	1.15
3	DAL	7	0	0.36
3	ARI	16	1	1.40
4	DAL	1	0	0.05
4	ARI	1	0	0.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 66.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 4 Arizona Coyotes

Expected: 3.5 - 2.7