Florida Panthers at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2022-04-28 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 0 - 4 Florida Panthers

Win Probability

OTT: 39.0%

FLA: 61.0%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.04

FLA: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 54%

OTT

F. Gustavsson

FLA

Spencer Knight - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	F. Gustavsson	30	26	4	86.7%	3.66	2	-0.34
FLA	Spencer Knight	27	27	0	100.0%	2.96	1	2.96

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 72% • OTT at home vs FLA: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	OTT 5 - 1 FLA	OTT	OTT
2026-03-31	FLA 6 - 3 OTT	FLA	OTT
2026-01-10	OTT 2 - 3 FLA	FLA	OTT
2025-10-11	FLA 6 - 2 OTT	FLA	FLA
2025-04-05	OTT 3 - 0 FLA	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	8	0	0.84
1	FLA	15	0	1.27
2	OTT	14	0	0.70
2	FLA	11	1	1.25
3	OTT	15	1	1.41
3	FLA	15	1	1.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 0 - 4 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1