Columbus Blue Jackets at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2022-02-08 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 4 - 5 Columbus Blue Jackets

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 54.9%

CBJ: 45.1%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.34

CBJ: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

WSH

P. Copley

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	P. Copley	26	21	5	80.8%	2.91	1	-2.09
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	33	29	4	87.9%	2.70	0	-1.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • WSH at home vs CBJ: 7-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	CBJ 1 - 2 WSH	WSH	CBJ
2025-12-07	WSH 2 - 0 CBJ	WSH	WSH
2025-11-24	WSH 5 - 1 CBJ	WSH	WSH
2025-10-24	CBJ 1 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-04-13	WSH 1 - 4 CBJ	CBJ	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	15	0	0.71
1	CBJ	12	0	0.84
2	WSH	15	0	0.64
2	CBJ	17	0	0.88
3	WSH	19	0	1.35
3	CBJ	10	1	1.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 4 - 5 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0