Calgary Flames at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2022-04-28 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 3 - 2 Calgary Flames (OT)

Win Probability

MIN: 63.4%

CGY: 36.6%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.32

CGY: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

MIN

C. Talbot

CGY

J. Markstrom

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	C. Talbot	33	31	2	93.9%	1.85	0	-0.15
CGY	J. Markstrom	25	22	3	88.0%	1.95	0	-1.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • MIN at home vs CGY: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	MIN 4 - 1 CGY	MIN	MIN
2025-12-04	CGY 4 - 1 MIN	CGY	CGY
2025-11-09	MIN 2 - 0 CGY	MIN	CGY
2025-04-11	CGY 4 - 2 MIN	CGY	MIN
2025-01-25	MIN 4 - 5 CGY	CGY	MIN

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	MIN	16	0.70
1	CGY	7	0.26
2	MIN	8	0.33
2	CGY	17	0.72
3	MIN	12	0.79
3	CGY	18	0.87
4	MIN	3	0.12
4	CGY	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 3 - 2 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1