Chicago Blackhawks at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2022-04-29 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Chicago Blackhawks (OT)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 56.2%
CHI: 43.8%
Expected Goals
BUF: 3.34
CHI: 2.94
Total Goals
Median: 6.4
Over 5.5: 59%
Over 6.5: 44%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
D. Tokarski
CHI
C. Delia
| Stat | BUF | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | D. Tokarski | 21 | 19 | 2 | 90.5% | 1.95 | 1 | -0.05 |
| CHI | C. Delia | 36 | 33 | 3 | 91.7% | 3.01 | 0 | 0.01 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 90% • BUF at home vs CHI: 5-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | CHI 1 - 5 BUF | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-11-21 | BUF 9 - 3 CHI | BUF | BUF |
| 2024-12-27 | BUF 6 - 2 CHI | BUF | BUF |
| 2024-10-19 | CHI 2 - 4 BUF | BUF | BUF |
| 2024-01-18 | BUF 3 - 0 CHI | BUF | BUF |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 14 | 0 | 0.56 |
| 1 | CHI | 11 | 0 | 0.58 |
| 2 | BUF | 12 | 0 | 0.81 |
| 2 | CHI | 11 | 1 | 0.80 |
| 3 | BUF | 21 | 0 | 1.31 |
| 3 | CHI | 6 | 0 | 0.49 |
| 4 | BUF | 5 | 0 | 0.33 |
| 4 | CHI | 1 | 0 | 0.09 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 56.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Chicago Blackhawks
Expected: 3.3 - 2.9
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