Carolina Hurricanes at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2022-02-20 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 4 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 53.6%

CAR: 46.4%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.38

CAR: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

CAR

A. Raanta

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	30	26	4	86.7%	3.66	2	-0.34
CAR	A. Raanta	34	31	3	91.2%	3.18	0	0.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • PIT at home vs CAR: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	PIT 1 - 5 CAR	CAR	PIT
2026-03-18	CAR 6 - 5 PIT	CAR	CAR
2026-03-10	CAR 5 - 4 PIT	CAR	CAR
2025-12-30	PIT 5 - 1 CAR	PIT	PIT
2025-01-05	CAR 4 - 3 PIT	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	10	0	1.17
1	CAR	15	0	1.07
2	PIT	17	0	0.82
2	CAR	14	0	0.87
3	PIT	18	0	1.19
3	CAR	11	2	1.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 4 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0