Tampa Bay Lightning at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2022-04-28 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 5 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

Win Probability

CBJ: 42.6%

TBL: 57.4%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 3.24

TBL: 3.37

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 52%

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

TBL

B. Elliott

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	27	25	2	92.6%	3.53	2	1.53
TBL	B. Elliott	35	30	5	85.7%	4.06	2	-0.94

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • CBJ at home vs TBL: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	TBL 2 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	TBL
2026-01-24	CBJ 8 - 5 TBL	CBJ	CBJ
2025-10-18	CBJ 3 - 2 TBL	CBJ	CBJ
2025-03-04	TBL 6 - 2 CBJ	TBL	TBL
2024-12-17	TBL 5 - 3 CBJ	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	15	0	0.84
1	TBL	10	0	0.57
2	CBJ	20	1	1.59
2	TBL	16	0	1.28
3	CBJ	16	1	1.63
3	TBL	12	2	1.68

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Columbus Blue Jackets 5 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.2 - 3.4