Washington Capitals at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2022-05-03 • FLA Live Arena

Florida Panthers 2 - 4 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

FLA: 54.8%

WSH: 45.2%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.19

WSH: 3.76

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 52%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

WSH

V. Vanecek

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	38	34	4	89.5%	4.03	3	0.03
WSH	V. Vanecek	32	30	2	93.8%	2.20	1	0.20

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 76% • FLA at home vs WSH: 9-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	WSH 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	WSH
2025-12-29	FLA 5 - 3 WSH	FLA	FLA
2025-11-13	FLA 6 - 3 WSH	FLA	FLA
2025-03-22	WSH 6 - 3 FLA	WSH	WSH
2025-02-04	WSH 6 - 3 FLA	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	15	0	0.33
1	WSH	24	2	1.71
2	FLA	14	1	0.93
2	WSH	18	0	1.26
3	FLA	18	0	0.93
3	WSH	8	1	1.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 2 - 4 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.2 - 3.8