Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-05-04 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 54.8%

TBL: 45.2%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.05

TBL: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 51%

TOR

J. Campbell

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	J. Campbell	34	29	5	85.3%	3.38	1	-1.62
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	34	31	3	91.2%	3.05	0	0.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TOR at home vs TBL: 9-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	TOR 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TOR
2026-02-25	TBL 4 - 2 TOR	TBL	TBL
2025-12-08	TOR 2 - 0 TBL	TOR	TOR
2025-04-09	TBL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TBL
2025-01-20	TOR 5 - 3 TBL	TOR	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	21	0	1.22
1	TBL	13	0	0.69
2	TOR	11	0	0.59
2	TBL	19	0	1.69
3	TOR	16	0	1.24
3	TBL	13	1	0.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0