Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-05-10 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

TOR: 60.4%

TBL: 39.6%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.69

TBL: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

TOR

J. Campbell

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	J. Campbell	35	32	3	91.4%	2.53	1	-0.47
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	25	21	4	84.0%	2.56	0	-1.44

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TOR at home vs TBL: 9-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	TOR 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TOR
2026-02-25	TBL 4 - 2 TOR	TBL	TBL
2025-12-08	TOR 2 - 0 TBL	TOR	TOR
2025-04-09	TBL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TBL
2025-01-20	TOR 5 - 3 TBL	TOR	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	8	0	0.66
1	TBL	17	1	1.14
2	TOR	19	0	1.15
2	TBL	10	0	0.77
3	TOR	15	0	0.75
3	TBL	13	0	0.61

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.7 - 3.0