Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-05-14 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 57.6%

TBL: 42.4%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.45

TBL: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

TOR

J. Campbell

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	J. Campbell	25	23	2	92.0%	2.41	1	0.41
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	31	30	1	96.8%	3.25	0	2.25

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TOR at home vs TBL: 9-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	TOR 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TOR
2026-02-25	TBL 4 - 2 TOR	TBL	TBL
2025-12-08	TOR 2 - 0 TBL	TOR	TOR
2025-04-09	TBL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TBL
2025-01-20	TOR 5 - 3 TBL	TOR	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	12	0	0.77
1	TBL	11	0	0.37
2	TOR	12	0	0.76
2	TBL	15	1	1.58
3	TOR	24	0	1.72
3	TBL	6	0	0.46

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1