New York Rangers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2022-05-07 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 7 - 4 New York Rangers

Win Probability

PIT: 57.7%

NYR: 42.3%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.19

NYR: 2.74

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 53%

PIT

L. Domingue

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	L. Domingue	36	32	4	88.9%	3.79	0	-0.21
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	37	30	7	81.1%	5.24	4	-1.76

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • PIT at home vs NYR: 6-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	NYR 3 - 2 PIT	NYR	PIT
2026-01-31	PIT 6 - 5 NYR	PIT	PIT
2025-10-11	PIT 1 - 6 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-10-07	NYR 0 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-02-23	PIT 3 - 5 NYR	NYR	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	19	0	1.00
1	NYR	18	0	1.32
2	PIT	13	1	1.12
2	NYR	23	0	1.64
3	PIT	21	3	3.11
3	NYR	12	0	0.83

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 7 - 4 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.2 - 2.7