Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2022-05-05 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 0 - 2 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 60.5%

DAL: 39.5%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.84

DAL: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

CGY

J. Markstrom

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	23	21	2	91.3%	2.30	1	0.30
DAL	Jake Oettinger	29	29	0	100.0%	2.57	0	2.57

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • CGY at home vs DAL: 6-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	DAL 4 - 3 CGY	DAL	DAL
2026-03-03	CGY 1 - 6 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-11-22	CGY 3 - 2 DAL	CGY	CGY
2025-03-27	CGY 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-03-06	DAL 3 - 2 CGY	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	12	0	0.76
1	DAL	11	0	0.30
2	CGY	17	0	0.90
2	DAL	9	0	0.53
3	CGY	16	0	0.91
3	DAL	9	1	1.47

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 0 - 2 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.8 - 2.9