Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2022-05-11 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 1 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

CGY: 69.8%

DAL: 30.2%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.33

DAL: 2.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 47%

CGY

J. Markstrom

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	21	20	1	95.2%	1.65	0	0.65
DAL	Jake Oettinger	32	29	3	90.6%	3.20	1	0.20

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • CGY at home vs DAL: 6-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	DAL 4 - 3 CGY	DAL	DAL
2026-03-03	CGY 1 - 6 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-11-22	CGY 3 - 2 DAL	CGY	CGY
2025-03-27	CGY 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	CGY
2025-03-06	DAL 3 - 2 CGY	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	13	0	0.62
1	DAL	12	0	0.64
2	CGY	18	0	0.85
2	DAL	14	0	0.58
3	CGY	20	1	1.73
3	DAL	9	0	0.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 69.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.4

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 1 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.3 - 2.0