Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-05-22 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 1 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 43.1%

FLA: 56.9%

Expected Goals

TBL: 2.95

FLA: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 49%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	35	34	1	97.1%	3.32	0	2.32
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	36	31	5	86.1%	5.23	5	0.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • TBL at home vs FLA: 7-10

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	TBL 6 - 1 FLA	TBL	TBL
2025-12-27	FLA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-12-15	TBL 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	TBL
2025-11-15	FLA 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-04-30	TBL 3 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	17	0	1.07
1	FLA	9	0	0.84
2	TBL	15	1	1.35
2	FLA	17	0	1.27
3	TBL	16	4	2.80
3	FLA	24	0	1.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 1 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2